The tiny Portuguese island of Madeira has “adopted” Bitcoin (BTC) — but what does that mean? The announcement made during the Bitcoin Miami Conference in 2022 has spurned confusion and misinformation.

The President of the Regional Government of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque, hopped onto the stage in April to announce that he believes in the “future of Bitcoin,” and that he would work to “create a fantastic environment for Bitcoin.” However, the details remained unclear. 

Cointelegraph spoke to André Loja, a Madeiran entrepreneur who spearheaded the plan to bring Bitcoin to the archipelago in the Atlantic ocean to find out how Bitcoin is shaping the islands’ development.

The island of Madeira exploded onto the Bitcoin world map on April 7, when Samson Mow proudly announced that Madeira “will be adopting Bitcoin.”

Upon the announcement, news outlets around the world reported that Madeira had adopted Bitcoin as legal tender. However, this was not the case. Loja explained to Cointelegraph that prior to Samson Mow’s announcement, Loja would have preferred to use the phrasing “Madeira is embracing Bitcoin.”

“We embrace it, we support it. We are not ‘adopting’ Bitcoin because adopting looks like we were making it legal tender when it’s already de facto legal.”

Indeed, in Madeira and across Portugal — 1,000 km northeast of the island — there is zero tax on Bitcoin capital gains. That means any disposal, spending, or use of Bitcoin does not need to be declared to tax authorities by the island’s 250,000 people.

Loja orange-pilled the president of Madeira just a few weeks prior to the conference, sharing his vision for Bitcoin as not only a means to attract foreign investment, but to “protect my island from the fiat system.”

By happenstance, Albuquerque came to visit Loja’s coworking space — one of the few places that accept Bitcoin in Madeira — and Loja jumped at the opportunity to share his passion for Bitcoin. Madeira was kneecapped by the COVID-19 pandemic as critical tourism revenue fell off a cliff. Loja, therefore, presented a Bitcoin future to the president as a means to diversify and restructure Madeira’s economy, among other advantages.

Albuquerque was reportedly  open to the idea, so Loja quickly sought the help of Bitcoiners around the world, including Daniel Prince, a renowned Bitcoin podcaster; Jeff Booth, the author of The Price of Tomorrow, and even Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy.

Within weeks, the Bitcoiner all-star team had contacted the organizers of Bitcoin Miami 2022 to organize the president’s appearance on stage. Ultimately, having the head of state of an autonomous region endorse Bitcoin was an opportunity too big to miss.

Upon landing in Miami, Loja and Albuquerque were invited to Saylor’s flashy Miami villa, “with the yachts and everything,” Loja jokes. While Loja had already orange-pilled the president, the conversation with Saylor was on another level:

“Michael Saylor sat down with president Albuquerque and well […] It was more like he sat down with his head!”

Saylor told Albuquerque that “you need to focus on Bitcoin. Everything else is garbage.” A conversation the president is unlikely to forget, the seminar was sufficient preparation for him to step on stage in front of 25,000 Bitcoin enthusiasts.

Loja explained that the announcement that Madeira is adopting Bitcoin would “kickstart an intention” for Madeira to become an island in which Bitcoin prospers alongside the people. For Loja, who has already translated popular Bitcoin books into Portuguese, “It starts with education: the most important thing.”

Loja (far right), President Albuquerque (center with book) and Knut Svanholm (far left) in Madeira in May 2022. Source: Loja

Indeed, Loja cut his teeth during the bear market of 2018. A passionate educator, Loja works closely with other educators in the space, such as Knut Svanholm,  author of Bitcoin: Everything Divided by 21 Million, to teach the principles of sound money:

“I have a lot of ideas, from kindergarten to schools to adults workshops — and to bring people from outside the island. The association will have the best people as consultants.”

To this end, Loja is founding the Sound Money Foundation, a Bitcoin education center in Madeira. The center has support from Samson Mow and Jeff Booth, among others, and seeks to help locals to better understand cryptocurrency from a young age.

Accompanying the education drive and the focus on improving “financial literacy,” Loja’s hometown also lures Bitcoin companies with attractive fiscal incentives. At the International Business Center, companies pay just 5% business tax, a highly competitive rate. Portugal was already a budding hub for individual Bitcoiners, but companies could now reap benefits 

Related: Bitcoin, Bukele and a bevy of central bankers meet in El Salvador

Further down the road, Loja plans for the autonomous government of Madeira to mine Bitcoin with leftover renewable energy — as the island has abundant wind and sunlight — and even carry out “a multi-signature wallet for the government to work with Bitcoin financially.”

Madeira’s international business center. Source: ibc-madeira.com

As a result, the government would take full custody of the Bitcoin it mines by taking control of the private keys. Loja highlighted that the electrical power grid is a standalone “public company,” so any Bitcoin mined by the grid would go into government multi-sig wallets.

In essence, Madeira’s approach to Bitcoin goes above and beyond the lauded legal tender status. From public sector Bitcoin mining to education to state-run multi-sig wallets to having Michael Saylor on speed dial, the island is slowly steering towards a Bitcoin future. 

Unsurprisingly, Loja’s holistic approach to the island “embracing” Bitcoin has a low time preference.  


Cointelegraph By Joseph Hall

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Global crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX is expanding its platform beyond just derivatives by finally launching a spot crypto trading platform.

BitMEX officially announced on May 17 that its spot crypto exchange, the BitMEX Spot Exchange, is now live, allowing retail and institutional investors to buy, sell and trade cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

At launch, the exchange supports seven pairs of cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, Chainlink (LINK), Uniswap (UNI), Polygon (MATIC), Axie Infinity (AXS) and ApeCoin (APE), all trading against the Tether stablecoin (USDT).

The launch of the BitMEX Spot Exchange comes as the company plans to become one of the top ten largest spot exchanges in the world. The company decided to build its own spot exchange last year in response to the increasing crypto trading demand from its current user base, according to the announcement.

“Today, BitMEX is one step closer to providing our users with a full crypto ecosystem to buy, sell, and trade their favourite digital assets. We will not rest as we aim to deliver more features, more trading pairs, and more ways for our clients to take part in the crypto revolution,” BitMEX CEO Alexander Höpner said.

Founded in 2014, BitMEX is one of the world’s largest and oldest crypto trading companies, starting providing its services about six years after Bitcoin was launched. Unlike spot exchanges, BitMEX has been mainly focusing derivatives, allowing users to buy and sell contracts like futures, options and perpetuals on a wide range of crypto assets.

At the time of writing, BitMEX is one of the top 30 biggest derivatives crypto trading platforms, with daily trading volume amounting to $841 million, according to data from CoinMarketCap. BitMEX was ranked one of the biggest derivatives platforms by open interest alongside Binance as of 2020.

BitMEX has faced some legal issues recently, with founders Arthur Hayes and Hong Konger Benjamin Delo pleading guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act in February 2022. The court eventually ordered a total of $30 million civil monetary penalties from the three co-founders of BitMEX crypto derivatives exchange in March.

Related: The Brazilian Stock Exchange will launch Bitcoin and Ethereum futures

The firm also reportedly laid off about 75 employees — or a quarter of the company’s staff — in April, following a failed acquisition of the German bank Bankhaus von der Heyd.

BitMEX did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment. This article will be updated pending new information.


Cointelegraph By Helen Partz

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This week, 44 central bankers from developing countries around the world are attending a conference in El Salvador to discuss financial inclusion, financing for small and medium-sized businesses and Bitcoin (BTC). 

Central bank delegates from Ghana to Burundi, Jordan to the Maldives and Pakistan to Costa Rica arrived in San Salvador for the conference upon El SalvadorPresident Nayib Bukele’s invitation.

Delegates’ countries marked in orange. Source: Twitter

Organized by the Alliance for Financial Inclusion, a global policy leadership alliance, and in partnership with El Salvador’s central bank, the conference will run for three days. In a tweet, the head of El Salvador central bank, Douglas Rodríguez, shared:

“El Salvador is proud to receive representatives from 44 central banks and financial authorities to learn about the implementation of Bitcoin and policies to promote Financial Inclusion.”

Rodríguez’ superior, President Bukele, shared that he was “planting seeds” among the 44 delegates while tweeting a group photo of the leaders:

The team behind the Bitcoin Beach project was also in attendance, on-hand to educate the central bankers. Bitcoin Beach, El Zonte, was the birthplace of the Bitcoin Law, a grassroots movement that led the first nation to adopt Bitcoin. 

Nicolas Burtey, co-founder of Galoy Money — the company that built the Bitcoin Beach wallet — said, “After spending a day with those central bankers, I can say: still a lot of education to do.” Burtey continued:

“[The] vast majority have no idea of the potential of bitcoin. But with El Salvador adopting Bitcoin, they now have a reason to dive into it.”

Burtey and his team spent the day speaking with central bankers, showing them how to use Bitcoin Lightning wallets and send payments. Progress was fast — so fast, in fact, that Burtey tweeted: “We can’t onboard the central banks fast enough to #bitcoin with the BTCBeachWallet.”

Photos of the event beggar belief, with central bankers studiously learning how to send payments and create wallets.

At present, only two countries around the world have recognized Bitcoin as legal tender: El Salvador and recently the Central African Republic, which was subsequently scolded by African central banks for adopting cryptocurrencies.

Related: El Salvador’s central bank accepts Qredo’s registration to provide crypto services

For some commentators, such as Dan Tapiero of investment fund 10T holdings, who memorably told Cointelegraph during an interview, “I don’t have cash,” El Salvador’s financial inclusion conference is momentous. He insinuates that the United States might need to catch up:  

For hardcore Bitcoiners, nonetheless, the opportunity to make a joke about the event was just too great. Gigi, a Bitcoin writer and author of Bitcoin book 21 lessons, tweeted “If they keep using Bitcoin they wont be central bankers much longer!”




Cointelegraph By Joseph Hall

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This week will be remembered as the one when the stablecoins showed an unexpected ability to depeg. Terra’s TerraUSD (UST) dropped to a shocking $0.29 following the general meltdown of both crypto and financial markets, but it was also the headliner of stablecoins’ niche, while Tether (USDT) lost the balance and slid to $0.96 for a short time. 

The United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen felt it necessary to assure everyone that, given the stablecoins’ market size, depegging didn’t present a threat to America’s financial stability. At the same time, she called on lawmakers to develop a “consistent federal framework” on stablecoins to address risks. You can’t be too careful, right?

Commissioner Hester Peirce, though, seems to be in a mood for experiments. Known as the Crypto Mom, she noted that while the stablecoins should have their own regulatory framework, regulators need to allow room for failure, “Because that obviously is part of trying new things.”

Public support, public roast

The closest analog to stablecoins, the central bank digital currency (CBDC), is slowly making its way, at least in the policymakers’ plans. The Bank of Israel bragged about the public support for its “digital shekel” initiative, which has been halted at some point, but went into a new phase of testing last year. In that sense, there’s not much to brag about for the European Central Bank, which is continuing to pitch to the public various anonymity options for its digital euro.

Continue reading

How to get the UN pro-crypto

It is not often that we hear from large international organizations any concerns about the crypto market’s suppression. So, the prize goes to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which is pushing so hard to kill any competition from private digital currencies to its CBDC, eNaira, that the United Nations and the Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) had to admit: “The restrictions have crippled foreign direct investment in the fintech industry and negatively impacted millions of young Nigerians who earn a living from the sector.” The problem is that it doesn’t seem to bother CBN too much.

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No tax for hodlers

While some are trying to hold innovation, others make life easier for holders. Germany’s Finance Ministry released new cryptocurrency tax guidelines. Under it, the individuals who sell Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH) more than 12 months after acquisition will not be liable for taxes on the sale if they realize a profit. Furthermore, Bitcoin miners that acquire newly minted BTC will also have waived tax payments after a year of holding.

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Further reads

It’s time to shift from Bitcoin maximalism to Bitcoin realism. Ben Caselin from AAX explains why

What will change for NFT holders since the U.K.’s high court recognized the nonfungibles as property

The primary aim of the digital euro is still not clear, admits the Chairman of the Digital Euro Association in his interview

Cointelegraph Research issued its first H1 Regulation report for 2022 — Here are the key takeaways

A key to the broader mass adoption of crypto? “On-chain privacy,” believes Kieran Mesquita from Railgun


Cointelegraph By David Attlee

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Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $30,500 on May 17 amid hopes that a retest of 2017 highs could be avoided.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView$20,000 retest ‘highly unlikely’

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing after the daily close to tentatively build on $30,000.

Still, in a multi-day range, the pair was yet to decide on a meaningful upward or downward trajectory, while volatility ebbed into the new week.

Amid concerns that a major retracement could take it below last week’s ten-month lows, popular analyst Credible Crypto offered a more optimistic alternative. Based on historical norms, he argued on Twitter, thatBitcoin had little impetus to retest $20,000 or lower.

“The argument for 13K-14K $BTC on the premise that past major bear markets have led to 80% declines from the top makes a major assumption- that 65k was the cycle top,” he wrote.

“It’s the same assumption people made at 30k in June ‘21 before we rallied to a new ATH of 65K 3 months later.”

As Cointelegraph recently reported, contingency plans appear to be in place already for such an event, with MicroStrategy — the company with the largest corporate BTC treasury — even prepared to buy up supply to stem the fall.

Asked whether BTC/USD could repeat the retracement from its 2019 highs near $14,000 to the $3,600 floor during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, Credible Crypto was just as skeptical.

“Not expecting that. Is it possible? Yes, but as I’ve said previously a retest of prior cycle highs has never happened before- so I find it highly unlikely,” he responded.

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, it was a question of the United States dollar cooling its bull run versus other fiat currencies in order to give risk assets some breathing space.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), he forecasted, should come down from its twenty-year highs of 105 points.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

“If I look at the current state of the $DXY, I think we’ll follow through with this scenario. Assuming we’ll be seeing some corrective move, the highs have been swept for liquidity. Losing 103.7 points and I think we’ll get more downwards pressure here -> risk-on assets up,” he tweeted on May 16.

Sentiment echoes March 2020 aftermath

Market sentiment data meanwhile reflected the majority consensus across crypto — that anything could now happen, with bias firmly skewed to the downside.

Related: First 7-week losing streak in history ― 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a cross-market sentiment gauge, hit 8/100 on May 17, its lowest value since March 28, 2020 — two weeks after the Coronavirus lockdown-induced meltdown.

Then, as now, BTC/USD was already recovering from its lows. At $30,500, the pair was up 28% from the week prior.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.




Cointelegraph By William Suberg

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The Chinese government has not managed to take down cryptocurrency operations as part of its crypto ban last year as China has re-emerged as one of the world’s largest Bitcoin (BTC) mining hubs, according to a new report.

China became the second-largest Bitcoin hash rate provider as of January 2022, months after the local government banned all crypto operations in the country, according to the latest update from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) shared with Cointelegraph on Tuesday.

Bitcoin miners in China accounted for 21.1% of the total global BTC mining hash rate distribution as of early 2022, following only the United States, which produced 37.8% of the total hash rate as of January, according to the data.

China was once the world’s largest Bitcoin mining country, with the local BTC hash rate power accounting for more than 75% in 2019. The hash rate then plummeted to 0% in July and August 2021, following a series of crypto mining farm shutdowns in the country.  

Despite the crypto ban in September 2021, the hash rate share surged to 22.3% that month and did not drop below 18% over the analyzed period.

Evolution of country hash rate share. Source: CBECI

CBECI project lead Alexander Neumueller told Cointelegraph that the new data is enough to conclude that Bitcoin mining is still live in China, stating:

“Our data empirically confirms the claims of industry insiders that Bitcoin mining is still ongoing within the country. Although mining in China is far from its former heights, the country still seems to host about one-fifth of the total hash rate.”

Russia drops out of the top three largest miners

The latest CBECI update also signals a slight drop in the hash rate share in Kazakhstan, the world’s third-largest BTC mining hub. Kazakhstan’s BTC hash rate share dropped from 18% in August to 13.2% in January.

The CBECI data also shows that miners now mine as much as 9% of the global BTC hash rate in undefined locations. Canada and Russia are the following major mining hubs, accounting for 6.5% and 4.7%, respectively.

In addition to dropping out from the three biggest countries by BTC hash rate power, Russia also saw its actual hash rate declining from 13.6 EH/s in August to 8.6 EH/s in January.

Georgia, Texas and Kentucky lead BTC hash rate production in the US

The new CBECI update provides more specific insights about the largest Bitcoin mining market’s hashrate distribution at the state level.

Related: Bitcoin network hash rate hit a new record high amid price volatility

The data shows that Georgia, Texas and Kentucky make up the three largest states in terms of hash rate, accounting for 32%, 11.2% and 10.9%, respectively. All three states combined account for more than half of the overall hash rate in the United States.

Notable mining activity can also be found in the states like New York, California, North Carolina and Washington, the data suggests.

Methodology: CBECI uses data from four mining pools

The CBECI is released under the umbrella of the Cambridge Digital Assets Programme, a research initiative host Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance.

The report is based on data obtained in collaboration with four major mining pools, BTC.com, Poolin, ViaBTC and Foundry. According to the CBECI website, the sample size for the analyzed mining pool data has varied between 32% and 38% of Bitcoin’s total hash rate since the release of the mining map in 2019.

“We are continually seeking ways in which to improve our data in order to increase the reliability of our estimates. The best way for us to do this is to welcome additional contributing mining pools, so we would encourage other mining pools to reach out and get involved,” the CBECI project lead said.


Cointelegraph By Helen Partz

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The selling in Bitcoin (BTC) is showing no sign of abating and Bitcoin has fallen for seven straight weeks for the first time ever. This indicates that the momentum remains strongly in favor of the bears. 

While the short-term sentiment remains bearish, institutional traders seem to be taking a longer-term approach on cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs and Barclays joined several other institutional investors in a $70 million Series A funding round by institutional trading platform Elwood Technologies.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

After the mayhem and volatility of the last week, crypto prices may attempt a relief rally in the next few days. It is unlikely to be a V-shaped recovery because the macro conditions are not supportive. During periods of high volatility and uncertainty, it might be a wise decision to cut down on the trading position size to keep risk under check.

What are the critical support and resistance levels that may indicate a potential change in trend when breached? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin turned down from $3,460, suggesting that bears are selling on minor rallies. The bears will now attempt to sink the price below the crucial support at $28,805 but the bulls are likely to have other plans.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If price rebounds off $28,805, the bulls will again try to push the BTC/USDT pair to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($33,646). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could indicate that bulls are attempting a comeback. The pair could then rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($39,300).

Contrary to this assumption, if the price slips below $28,805, the pair could drop to $26,700. If this support cracks, the pair could resume its downtrend and the price may plummet to $25,000 and later to $21,800.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) is facing stiff resistance at the breakdown level at $2,159, which suggests that bears continue to sell on rallies. The bears will now try to pull the price below the immediate support at $1,940.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to the critical support at $1,700. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if they fail to do that, the downtrend could resume and the pair may drop to $1,500.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from $1,700, the pair could rise to $2,159 and remain range-bound between these two levels.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $2,159. That could clear the path for a rally to the 20-day EMA ($2,421). The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to indicate that the downtrend may be over.

BNB/USDT

BNB‘s strong recovery reached near the breakdown level at $320 on May 13 and 15 but the bulls could not clear this overhead barrier. This suggests that bears are attempting to flip the level into resistance.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair could now drop to $265, which is likely to act as support. If the price rebounds off this level, the buyers will again try to drive the pair above $320. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $350 and thereafter to the 50-day SMA ($391).

Alternatively, if the price slips below $265, the pair could drop toward the strong support at $211. The bulls are expected to defend this level with vigor. A strong bounce off this support could keep the pair range-bound between $211 and $320 for the next few days.

XRP/USDT

The long wick on Ripple’s (XRP) May 13 candlestick suggests that bears are trying to pose a strong challenge near the breakdown level at $0.50. The failure to rise above this overhead resistance could have tempted short-term traders to book profits.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price continues lower and breaks below $0.38, the XRP/USDT pair could drop to $0.33. The bulls are expected to defend this level aggressively but if the support cracks, the bearish momentum could pick up and the pair may plummet to $0.24.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level or the support at $0.38, the bulls will try to push the pair above the $0.50 to $0.55 overhead zone. If they succeed, it will suggest that the markets have rejected the lower levels. That could clear the path for a potential rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.67).

ADA/USDT

Cardano’s (ADA) relief rally is facing selling near $0.61, suggesting that bears are not willing to let go of their advantage. The bears will try to pull the price below $0.46 and retest the May 12 intraday low at $0.40.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price breaks below $0.40, the selling could intensify further and the ADA/USDT pair may plunge to $0.33 and later to $0.28.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level or the support at $0.46, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to put in a bottom. The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.68) to signal that the correction may be over. The pair could then rise to $0.74 and later to the 50-day SMA ($0.89).

SOL/USDT

Solana’s (SOL) bounce from $37 is facing stiff resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $59. This suggests that bears continue to sell on minor rallies.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will now try to pull the price below the immediate support at $44. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could retest the crucial level at $37. A break and close below this support could sink the pair to $32.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level or the support at $44, it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips. The bulls will then try to clear the overhead hurdle at $59 and push the pair to the 20-day EMA ($70). This level is likely to act as a stiff resistance.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery could not rise above the breakdown level at $0.10, suggesting that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance. If sellers succeed in their endeavor, the likelihood of a retest of $0.06 increases.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The DOGE/USDT pair could then drop to $0.04 where the bulls may again try to arrest the decline.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $0.10 and the 20-day EMA ($0.11). If they do that, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.13).

Related: Deus Finance’s dollar-pegged stablecoin DEI falls below 60 cents

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) climbed back above the breakdown level of $10.37 on May 13 but the recovery stalled near $12. This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bears sink the price below $10.37, the DOT/USDT pair could drift lower toward the minor support at $8. If this level cracks, the possibility of a break below $7.30 increases. The pair could then resume its downtrend and plummet toward the next strong support at $5.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $10.37 or $8, the bulls will attempt to push the pair above the 20-day EMA ($13). If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the short-term trend may have turned in favor of the buyers. The pair could then attempt a rally to $16.

AVAX/USDT

Avalanche’s (AVAX) recovery is facing stiff resistance at $38. The shallow rebound following a sharp decline suggests a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls. This could embolden the bears who may try to build upon their advantage.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bears pull the price below $29, the selling could pick up momentum and the AVAX/USDT pair could drop to the critical level at $23. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break and close below it could result in a decline to $20 and thereafter to $18.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level or $29, it will suggest that bulls are buying at lower levels. That could increase the possibility of a relief rally to the 20-day EMA ($48) where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) rebound hit a wall at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.000014 on May 13 and 14, indicating that bears do not want to let go of their advantage.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will once again try to sink the price below the psychological level at $0.000010 and challenge the intraday low of $0.000009 made on May 12. A break and close below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The SHIB/USDT pair could then decline to $0.000007, which is likely to act as a strong support.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $0.000010, the bulls will attempt to push the pair to the breakdown level at $0.000017. The buyers will have to clear this hurdle to suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.


Cointelegraph By Rakesh Upadhyay

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Bitcoin (BTC) bounced 19% from the $25,400 low on May 12, but has investor confidence in the market been restored? Judging by the ascending channel formation, it’s possible that bulls at least have plans to recover the $30,000 level in the short term.

Bitcoin/USD 4-hour price at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView

Does derivatives data support reclaiming $30,000, or is Bitcoin potentially heading to another leg down after failing to break above $31,000 on May 16?

Bitcoin price falters in the face of regulatory concerns and the Terra debacle

One factor placing pressure on BTC price could be the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) selling 80,081 Bitcoin, or 99.6%, of their position.

On May 16, LFG released details on the remaining crypto collateral and from one side, this project’s sell-off risk has been eliminated, but investors question the stability of other stablecoins and their decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

Recent remarks from FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried about proof-of-work (PoW) mining environmental and scalability issues further fueled the current negative sentiment. According to Bankman-Fried, the use of proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus is better suited to accommodate millions of transactions.

On May 14, a local United Kingdom newspaper reported the Department of Treasury’s intention to regulate stablecoins across Britain. According to the Treasury spokesman, the plan does not involve legalizing algorithmic stablecoins and instead prefers 1:1 fully-backed stablecoins.

While this news might have impacted market sentiment and BTC price, let’s take a look at how larger-sized traders are positioned in the futures and options markets.

The Bitcoin futures premium is showing resilience

The basis indicator measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. The annualized premium of Bitcoin futures should run between 5% and 10% to compensate traders for “locking in” the money for two to three months until the contract expires. Levels below 5% are bearish, while numbers above 10% indicate excessive demand from longs (buyers).

Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

The above chart shows that Bitcoin’s basis indicator moved below the 5% neutral threshold on April 6, but there has been no panic after the sell-off to $25,400 on May 12. This means that the metric is mildly positive.

Even though the basis indicator points to bearish sentiment, one must remember that Bitcoin is down 36% year-to-date and 56% below its $69,000 all-time high.

Related: $1.9T wipeout in crypto risks spilling over to stocks, bonds — stablecoin Tether in focus

Options traders are beyond stressed

The 25% options delta skew is extremely useful because it shows when Bitcoin arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

If option investors fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 10%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

The skew indicator moved above 10% on April 6, entering the “fear” level because options traders overcharged for downside protection. However, the current 19% level remains extremely bearish and the recent 25.5% was the worst reading ever registered for the metric.

Although Bitcoin’s futures premium was resilient, the indicator shows a lack of interest from leverage buyers (longs). In short, BTC options markets are still stressed and suggest that professional traders are not confident that the current ascending channel pattern will hold.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.


Cointelegraph By Marcel Pechman

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Bitcoin could eventually attempt a relief rally which might trigger a rebound in MANA, MKR, ZEC and KCS price.


Cointelegraph By Rakesh Upadhyay

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Bitcoin (BTC) needs to hold current levels and work to reclaim higher ones to avoid a crash in the $20,000 range, the latest analysis warns. 

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewIs $20,000 incoming?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD still failing to cement $30,000 as support on the May 16 Wall Street open.

The pair had seen fresh losses after the weekly close at $31,300 — this, in itself, disappointing market participants after sealing a record seventh consecutive red weekly candle.

Even as the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) revealed that it had sold almost all of its BTC reserves during last week’s Terra (LUNA) and TerraUSD meltdown, the implied lack of future selling failed to lift the mood on markets.

“Coming days going to be very important IMO. Keep these levels, grind higher from here,” popular trader Phoenix summarized in a Twitter post on the day.

“If it fails, my eyes are on $21.8K–$23.8K. Didn’t expect to keep those in mind again, lol. I was wrong thinking Q1 structure was a trend reversal start.”

Phoenix is far from alone in forecasting a return to levels even lower than last week’s floor at just under $24,000.

Joining the consensus, fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital likewise pointed to $20,000 being an area of interest should current levels fail to hold and buyers not materialize.

Last week’s action, he added, could have already created a new trading range for Bitcoin with its macro range low at $28,800 figuring as its ceiling.

“If this turns out to be the case, Macro Range Low could flip into resistance to again reject price to lower levels,” he explained. 

Meanwhile, some remained cautiously optimistic on the short-term prospects, including Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe.

“Not sure whether we’ll be getting that test going around $28.4K, but this is a scenario where I’d be looking at,” he told Twitter followers.

“Crucial bullish breaker is $30.2K. Overall, expecting continuation towards $32.8K for Bitcoin.”

At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at around $29,300 on Bitstamp.

Bitcoin “synonymous with volatility”

On macro, the picture remained broadly similar to recent weeks: stocks under pressure amid an ongoing surge in U.S. dollar strength.

Related: First 7-week losing streak in history ― 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) hit 105 on May 13, and as of May 16, was attempting to retest that level, which saw a rejection at the time.

The S&P 500 was down 0.65% on the day, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.3%.

Twitter stock again hit the headlines, this time underperforming tech stocks to trade at less than it had done before Elon Musk announced his 9% equity stake and takeover bid.

For Bloomberg Intelligence chief commodity strategist Mike McGlone, there were comparisons to be made with the dotcom bubble.

“If the risk-asset tide keeps ebbing, one of the best performers in history — Bitcoin — should face fitting mean reversion, but early adoption days may favor the nascent technology/asset,” he wrote in a further tweet on the day.

“Both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have dropped below their 100-week moving averages.

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 moving average chart. Source: Mike McGlone/ Twitter

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.




Cointelegraph By William Suberg

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