In this weeks episode of Market Talks we welcome senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, Caleb Franzen.

Caleb is a Senior Market Strategist at Cubic Analytics, analysing new data/charts on the economy, the stock market, and Bitcoin to make better investment decisions. He is also a former corporate banking & portfolio analyst.

The main topic of discussion with Caleb will be the new CPI data and what they mean for the crypto market, specifically Bitcoin (BTC). Is there a correlation between the data and the recent price pump? How sustainable is this price action?

We also go over a few of Caleb’s tweets where he explains which indicators he looks at when analysing charts. One indicator he finds particularly interesting is the 78-week Williams%R oscillator. We get into why it’s important and how it can help.

Something that might be looming over everyone’s heads is whether the recent Bitcoin pump is a fake out and if we could actually go lower before we break through $30K. We get Caleb’s thoughts on this as he and Tim try to figure it out.

Ethereum (ETH) has been performing particularly well recently with all the news and hype surrounding the merge from proof of work (POW) to proof of stake (POS). Does this mean that the merge has already been priced in or can we see a rally when the merge actually takes place in September? Could this be a classic case of buy the rumour sell the news?

Tune in to have your voice heard. We’ll be taking your questions and comments throughout the show, so be sure to have them ready to go.

Market Talks with Crypto Jebb streams live every Thursday at 1 pm ET (5:00 pm UTC). Each week, we feature interviews with some of the most influential and inspiring people from the crypto and blockchain industry. So, be sure to head on over to Cointelegraph’s YouTube page and smash those like and subscribe buttons for all our future videos and updates.

Cointelegraph By Adrian J. Permal

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 According to a new blog post on Thursday, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management overseeing $10 trillion+ in total assets, launched a new private spot Bitcoin (BTC) trust. The fund is only available to U.S. institutional investors and seeks to track the performance of Bitcoin, less the expenses and liabilities of the trust. In explaining the decision, BlackRock said: 

“Despite the steep downturn in the digital asset market, we are still seeing substantial interest from some institutional clients in how to efficiently and cost-effectively access these assets using our technology and product capabilities. Bitcoin is the oldest, largest, and most liquid digital asset and is currently our clients’ primary subject of interest within the digital asset space.”

Private investment trusts that do not solicit investments from retail investors do not need to register with regulatory authorities in the U.S. Though others, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, can still become publicly traded (though not SEC-registered) on the over-the-counter markets.

Excluding stablecoins, Bitcoin maintains close to 50% of the industry’s market cap. With regards to the blockchain’s energy use, BlackRock says that it’s encouraged by organizations such as RMI and Energy Web, which are developing programs to bring greater transparency to sustainable energy utilization in Bitcoin mining.

Last week, BlackRock partnered with cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to provide its clients with direct assess to crypto, starting with Bitcoin. Users of BlackRock’s institutional investment management platform Aladdin will receive crypto trading, custody, prime brokerage, and reporting capabilities upon signing up for Coinbase Prime. On a broader level, BlackRock states it’s been conducting research in four areas of digital assets and their associated ecosystems. These include permission blockchains, stablecoins, crypto assets, and tokenization. 

Cointelegraph By Zhiyuan Sun

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The cryptocurrency industry has offered developers and investors the opportunity to introduce new financial tools providing plentiful options to earn passive income. Simply holding crypto has offered patient investors the chance to make gains over the years. However, there are various other ways to increase crypto assets’ stacks, even in bear markets.

Other than staking, crypto savings accounts allow retail investors to accrue their funds by earning interest on the crypto assets they deposit on specific cryptocurrency platforms if they agree to lend out their coins or tokens. Crypto interest accounts are particularly appealing because they distribute much higher returns than traditional bank savings accounts, considering that the average interest rate applied by a crypto savings account can be up to 7.5%, against the average 0.06% of bank savings accounts.

Related: DeFi staking: A beginner’s guide to proof-of-stake (PoS) coins

The difference in rates between crypto and traditional savings accounts is somewhat significant but comes with higher risks associated with the service. We’ll find out here how to access crypto savings accounts, the crypto interest rates and deposit terms and the risks associated with this type of financial instrument.

What is a crypto savings account?

A crypto interest account is generally a DeFi platform’s service that lets you earn interest on digital assets you’ve deposited and agreed to lend out in exchange for a return. This service is similar to a bank savings account that will lend out your money to other customers or financial institutions for a certain amount of time and will give you interest for that service.

By definition, blockchain technology encourages users to become self-sovereign and independent from third parties. However, intermediate companies have become a necessary component of the industry providing crypto savings accounts to those who want to enjoy the benefits of the technology without making too much effort to learn complicated and burdensome processes.

Other than convenience, these companies will also hold some of the risks involved and ensure depositors are paid first if adverse events like insolvency occur. Some companies are backed by insurance and work with well-established custodians to protect their customers.

How does a crypto savings account work?

Once you deposit your crypto assets into a savings account, you start accruing interest from day one. Most of the popular cryptocurrencies can be used in a crypto savings account, with the most picked being Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC), while many favor interest rates on stablecoins like Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC) and PAX Dollar (USDP).

By depositing your crypto assets into a savings account, you formally grant the platform the right to use your money for any purpose, from lending it out to investing it or staking it on your behalf. Primarily, it will be used for lending it out to earn high returns, some of which will be paid to you as regular interest payments.

Crypto savings accounts may offer you more favorable rates if you agree to lock up your crypto for a while or hold a platform-specific token. Nexo, for instance, increases interest rates by up to 4% for holders of the platform’s governance token.

How to invest in a crypto savings plan?

When you want to invest in a crypto savings plan, the first step is to pick the right account for you and get started as follows:

Choose a cryptocurrency platform you trust that offers realistic interest rates;Transfer cryptocurrency to this chosen platform;Follow the few simple steps to deposit your crypto assets into a savings account. Usually, these steps are straightforward, and you’ll be guided through the process by the platform;Choose if you want to deposit your asset for a limited amount of time or select a flexible time that will allow you to withdraw your crypto at any time; Start earning interest from the first day.

As mentioned, there are plenty of platforms to choose from, including well-established cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase, with the following indications of interest rates on fixed savings:

Binance is the other global popular crypto platform that offers interest rates on many cryptocurrencies with flexible savings and locked savings options:

An increasing number of other financial service companies and cryptocurrency platforms provide these types of accounts. Nexo and are among companies offering greater interest rates to cryptocurrency holders who lock their assets away for weeks or months. However, the drawback with this type of savings account is that you can’t withdraw or sell your crypto during that period.

How much interest you can earn with a crypto savings account largely depends on the platform and the cryptocurrency you choose to deposit. The interest rate offered by the service will also be driven by market conditions and is usually paid out in the cryptocurrency you have deposited.

While their high-interest rates can entice you, you should consider how secure your investment is with them. Choosing the best crypto interest account is not simply a matter of comparing interest rates paid but also making sure your investment is as safe as possible.

Remember, they are custodians of your crypto assets, meaning that by holding your funds, they can even stop you from withdrawing them or delaying the withdrawal process, which may result in a loss for you if the value of the crypto asset changes in the meantime. When choosing the best interest rates, make sure you understand the difference between the annual percentage rate (APR) and the annual percentage yield (APY) because they might mislead you in calculating your yearly returns.

In short, APY includes a compound interest, i.e., the addition of interest to the principal sum of a loan or deposit (the interest on interest accrued). On the other hand, APR does not include compound interest. Due to the compound interest factor, APY will provide a higher return than APR. Yet, it’s always worth reading the savings account’s small print because certain services will pay simple interest only and won’t produce compound interest over time.

Crypto saving account risks

The crypto industry is mostly unregulated, so the investors might not have any cover in case something goes wrong with their assets. In this framework, operate crypto savings accounts that do not offer government-backed deposit insurance like the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA).

These savings accounts offer higher yields because they are riskier. For example, they could limit how quickly you can withdraw your assets and, in times of difficulties, they might not let customers withdraw their assets at all.

In exchange for these restrictions and the associated risk, these savings accounts are much more interesting for an investor than a typical bank account. However, for these accounts to yield such a high interest which may exceed 20% in some cases, you should wonder how your money is employed in the background.

Like regular banks operate under a “fractional reserve” banking service, so do most crypto companies. They are lending out more than they have to financial institutions with the difference that there is no deposit insurance to back them, as in the case of traditional banks.

Crypto savings accounts vs. crypto wallets

Crypto wallets simply won’t accrue your cryptocurrency holdings as opposed to crypto savings accounts that are conceived to increase the number of coins you own over time.

This might be at the expense of key ownership, though, because the private keys that allow you to access your coins are maintained by the crypto platform. On the other hand, most crypto wallets will ensure you keep full ownership of your private keys.

Security is another concern that should be very well addressed. There are security risks in the centralized platform that holds your private keys because it is potentially at risk of becoming insolvent, bankrupt or being hacked, and you could lose your money.

In the same way, you should choose a wallet carefully to avoid picking a service with little security and a vulnerability to hacking. Also, you must ensure you can easily access your wallet’s private keys if you lose your operational device and need to restore your assets in another digital location.

Cryptocurrency is a work in progress and will likely undergo continuous changes over the years, especially in terms of regulation, which will also affect how crypto savings accounts are managed. In June 2022, the issues of leading crypto lending platforms like Block.Fi and Celsius have raised further concerns over the future of crypto savings accounts and similar related cryptocurrency services.

Related: A step-by-step framework for evaluating crypto projects

Caution and due diligence are always recommended if you consider opening a crypto savings account and weigh the associated risks against the chances of high returns, especially if you risk life savings or anything close to that.

Cointelegraph By Emi Lacapra

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Bitcoin (BTC) continued toward $25,000 on the Aug. 11 Wall Street open amid news that the world’s largest asset manager had launched a BTC product.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewSilbert on BlackRock: “Here comes Wall Street”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it spike to $24,921 on Bitstamp as United States stocks trading got underway.

While going on to consolidate slightly below the highs, the pair inspired confidence in market sentiment, with popular crypto industry figures already seeing positive implications of the BlackRock move.

“Here comes Wall Street…,” former Grayscale CEO, Barry Silbert, responded.

For Blockware lead insights analyst, William Clemente, however, the news was a landmark event in Bitcoin’s history.

“Last comment on the matter: Think the Blackrock news is probably the most bullish news for a long term Bitcoin holder ever,” he told Twitter followers.

“Not just the news itself, but that it signals to some the water is fine and to others if they don’t offer their clients BTC they’ll get their lunch ate.”

BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, had described Bitcoin just five years earlier as an “index of money laundering.” He had appeared to change his tune by 2020, acknowledging the largest cryptocurrency’s potential to become a “global market.”

BlackRock’s offering would take the form of a spot Bitcoin private trust, it confirmed in a statement.

“The trust is available to U.S. institutional clients and seeks to track the performance of bitcoin, less expenses and liabilities of the trust,” it read.

“Despite the steep downturn in the digital asset market, we are still seeing substantial interest from some institutional clients in how to efficiently and cost-effectively access these assets using our technology and product capabilities.”

As Cointelegraph reported, the firm’s initial foray into Bitcoin this month came via a partnership with U.S. exchange Coinbase.

June futures gap comes into play

Turning to potential short-term price targets, the mood among commentators was thus flexible if still not outright bullish.

Related: Bitcoin battles 2-month resistance amid ‘most hated’ stocks rally

For on-chain monitoring resource Whalemap, potential upside and downside remained considerable, with $20,000 still not safe as a floor.

“$BTC is breaking out of an ascending triangle on low volatility meaning we should be expecting a big move soon enough,” the Whalemap team revealed alongside a chart showing relevant levels.

“Holding up to the break out is the number one priority where the realistic targets would be 27–29k above or 19k below in case we don’t hold.”

Bitcoin levels annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ Twitter

Popular Twitter account Altcoin Bets meanwhile added that “as long as we stay above 24k on daily, we should reach for 28k CME gap,” referring to a void in the CME Bitcoin futures chart, which often acts as a spot price magnet.

CME Bitcoin futures 1-day candle chart with nearest “gap” highlighted. Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Cointelegraph By William Suberg

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Interlay, a London-based blockchain firm, launched a Bitcoin (BTC)-based cross-chain bridge on Polkadot (DOT). Named interBTC (iBTC), the bridge allows the use of Bitcoin on non-native blockchains for decentralized finance (DeFi), cross-chain transfers and nonfungible tokens (NFTs), among others.

interBTC operates as a BTC-backed stablecoin, secured by a decentralized network of overcollateralized vaults, which according to Interlay, resembles MakerDAO’s DAI token, a stablecoin on the Ethereum blockchain.

The iBTC vaults use mixed-asset collateral to insure BTC reserves, making iBTC redeemable 1:1 with BTC over the Bitcoin blockchain. As a preventive measure during unforeseen vault failure, the collateral is programmed to get slashed and reimburse the BTC depositors. Sharing the thought process behind the initiative, Interlay co-founder and CEO Alexei Zamyatin stated:

“Bitcoin is the driving force behind global crypto adoption, while Polkadot, Ethereum & co. is where technological innovation is happening. With interBTC, we combine the best of both worlds while preserving the trustless nature of Bitcoin.”

Interlay’s announcement also highlighted Ethereum co-founder and Polkadot inventor Gavin Wood’s vision of creating a fully decentralized Bitcoin bridge on Polkadot, which was made possible by interBTC. Acala and Moonbeam will be the first DeFi hubs to host iBTC’s debut, which will be supported by a $1 million liquidity program offered by the Interlay network treasury and partner projects.

The roadmap for iBTC involves being available on other major DeFi networks, including Ethereum, Cosmos, Solana and Avalanche.

Related: DeFi market has room for growth in Korea: 1inch co-founder — KBW 2022

Echoing Interlay’s interest in serving the DeFi and other crypto markets, DeFi aggregator 1inch Network eyes geographical expansion in newer jurisdictions. Speaking to Cointelegraph, DeFi aggregator 1inch Network co-founder Sergej Kunz revealed plans to expand its reach in Asia.

Kunz disclosed that 1inch is actively looking to partner with Asia-based Web3 companies despite the small DeFi market in Korea and Asia, adding that:

“Here, there are a lot of people who like gaming and a lot of things like that, so I think the DeFi market can grow a lot in South Korea.”

1inch’s primary use case as a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator involves identifying pools with the largest liquidity, lowest slippage and cheapest cryptocurrency exchange rates.

Cointelegraph By Arijit Sarkar

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Bitcoin (BTC) pierced the top of a stubborn trading range on Aug. 11 as a decidedly awkward rally took hold of risk assets.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin retracement warnings intensify near $25,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting highs of $24,750 on Bitstamp, marking its best performance since June 13.

The pair had attempted several breakouts to the top of the range in prior weeks, these all failing in the face of stiff selling pressure.

New United States inflation data released this week formed a long-awaited catalyst for change, however, with Bitcoin and altcoins rising in step with equities as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for July suggested that inflation had peaked.

On Aug. 10, the day of the release, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.1% and 1.9% respectively. BTC/USD, on the other hand, saw a daily candle of around $900.

Rather than pile on the optimism, however, market commentators were anything but blanket bullish as the dust settled. Sentiment, investor Raoul Pal noted, was treating the post-CPI rally as a black sheep.

“Well, this appears to be one of the most hated rallies I’ve seen in quite few years in equities,” he told Twitter followers in a dedicated thread.

Pal nonetheless argued that there was a “very decent chance” that equities had seen their lows in June.

Forecasting a major change of tune in crypto, meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Il Capo of Crypto stuck by $25,500 as the maximum likely target before a new downtrend began.

“$BTC Pumped almost 40%. Huge Possibility, Retrace Coming. Buy The Dip,” fellow account Jibon continued in further Twitter comments.

A slightly more hopeful Crypto Tony meanwhile said that hodlers would be “in for a treat” if the range high managed to hold.

Eyeing potential similarities between the Bitcoin chart now and in March 2020, BTCfuel added that a further breakout was not off the cards.

Doubts emerge over Ethereum rally

The impressive performance across altcoins meanwhile put largest altcoin Ether (ETH) firmly in the spotlight after ETH/USD gained over 11%.

Related: Bitcoin dominance hits 6-month lows as metric proclaims new ‘alt season’

The pair continued its gains on the day, passing $1,900 for the first time since June 6 and now approaching the psychologically significant $2,000 mark.

The CPI momentum added to an already excitable Ethereum market, with the Goerli testnet merge — a  key preparatory step for the full Merge event in September — concluding successfully.

“Since the start of this bear market rally, in the middle of June, Ethereum is gaining dominance in terms of trading volume relative to Bitcoin. In the latest few days, Ethereum and Bitcoin Dominance has even crossed,” Maartuun, a contributing analyst at on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, wrote in a blog post on Aug. 10.

Maartuun cautioned that historical precedent nonetheless did not favor a sustained rally across crypto should this continue to be led by ETH.

“It is clear that Ethereum is very popular on exchanges, because of the gaining dominance. That makes sense because of the upcoming 2.0 merge,” he added.

“However, from my 5-year experience in the cryptomarket, rally’s which are led by Ethereum are usually not the healthiest thing for the market. As you already could read in my previous analysis, I’m very conservative. Especially because Ethereum already made a > 100% move from the lows.”

ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Cointelegraph By William Suberg

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When assisted senior living home The Preston of the Park Cities approached Owen Robertson to hold a course on crypto, NFTs, and the Metaverse for their residents, the 21-year-old didn’t expect how quickly they’d pick up on the complex topics. 

Speaking to Cointelegraph, the Quai Network marketing associate, board member of the Mccombs blockchain initiative, and guest lecturer at the University of Texas said he was more than eager to assist when he was first approached to put a class together.

“A senior living community has almost no exposure to the crypto ecosystem unless their grandchildren tell them about it.”

The 21-year-old found that throughout the lecture, residents were mostly quiet as they learned about an industry that even the experts have trouble keeping up with, but in the end, he was left impressed with how fast some attendees picked up the complex topics.

“I got some thought-provoking questions at the end from the residents wanting to learn more about the technology, which was awesome to see.” 

The Preston of the Park Cities offers a wide variety of activities through their Watermark University program, from knitting, music therapy; traditional exercise, and fitness to gardening, yoga, Tai Chi, and meditation.

However, the idea for a lecture on crypto, NFTs, and the metaverse is a relatively new addition to their lineup.

Debra Dickerson, Director of Community Life at The Preston at Park Cities told Cointelegraph that one of the main goals was to help residents improve their overall digital security.

“In the current news cycle, we are often seeing stories about these subjects but even I have a hard time truly understanding what each of these entities is.”

“We wanted to bring in an expert to provide a basic understanding of these concepts while also making them aware of the dangers technology can bring, how to identify internet scams looking to take advantage of seniors, and how to improve overall digital security.”

Robertson said he wanted to run the course as he knew that senior citizens are often “extremely vulnerable to scams.”

“So I wanted to ensure that, before talking about the positives in the later sessions, I covered all of the negatives such as the numerous hacks and exploits that have happened over the years,” explained Robertson. 

“After hearing the lecture and my recommendations, the residents concluded the risk outweighs the potential benefits, which was the point of the class,” he added.

Twitter response divided

Despite Robertson’s good intentions, the reaction on Twitter was somewhat polarized, with some airing concerns that he may have been swindling the senior citizens, while others, who were there, were won over.

Regardless of what the crypto community has said about the course, the residents appear keen to learn more, says Robertson. 

“The residents seem very interested and are looking forward to participating in the next two classes taking place this summer,” said Robertson, adding he’s already been asked to teach two more classes, diving into more specific topics like the history of Bitcoin, NFT’s and the Metaverse.

“My hope is that over time, education about the original values that Bitcoin and Quai were founded with will help deepen the public’s understanding about the technology and make it more approachable.”

As a bonus, attendees will even get to walk away with their own NFT of the selfie taken in the first lesson.

Pictured: Owen Robertson’s ‘selfie’ that will soon become an NFT

Cointelegraph By Stephen Katte

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Two executives at Wave Financial, an asset management firm providing bespoke strategies to high-net-worth individuals and entities, have reported seeing increased institutional demand for crypto products amid the bear market.

Speaking to Cointelegraph at the Blockchain Futurist Conference in Toronto on Wednesday, Wave Financial’s head of business development Mike Jones said institutional investment in crypto could be driven by the high end of wealth management firms, including Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs, looking for ways to allow their clients to get exposure to the space. Jones cited the example of BlackRock partnering with Coinbase on Aug. 4, a move that will give users of the asset manager’s institutional investment management platform Aladdin access to crypto trading, custody, prime brokerage and reporting capabilities.

In addition to wealth managers, the Wave exec said venture capital may see “a lot of growth” in part due to demand for innovative investment vehicles. Wave Financial’s investment and venture principal Gerard Berile added that VCs giving clients exposure to crypto without going through centralized exchanges and still dealing in large-scale volume has been a “net positive for the industry as a whole.”

“On the venture side of the house, the bear market has been somewhat of a positive thing,” said Berile. “Over the past year, year and a half, we’ve seen valuations of a lot of different companies get incredibly high — a bit frothy, you could say. In the past six months or so, we’ve seen valuations on companies come down to a bit more realistic valuations, and it’s become a great time to begin allocating capital.”

Blockchain Futurist Conference in Toronto, Canada

“What’s encouraging from a market perspective in general is that you think about the last cycle — a few years ago, a lot of the chatter that was surrounding the ecosystem then was: ‘Is this the end of crypto? Is crypto dead?’” said Jones. “From an institutional adoption standpoint and an institutional demand standpoint, the question now seems to be much more surrounding ‘Is this the right time to get in?’”

He added:

“Things are much more encouraging, even though this is clearly a time of pain. That comes with opportunity as well, particularly for people that are building in the space.”

Related: Bitcoin institutional buying ‘could be big narrative again’ as 30K BTC leaves Coinbase

Data from the blockchain seem to support some of Berile’s and Jones’ claims. Crypto intelligence firm IntoTheBlock reported in March that the number of large transactions on the Cardano blockchain increased more than 50-fold in 2020, suggesting “increasing institutional demand.” However, United States regulators have not approved certain crypto investment vehicles like an exchange-traded fund with direct exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) — many have said such a listing could attract new investors to the market.

Cointelegraph By Turner Wright

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been posting higher lows for the past eight weeks, but during this time, BTC has not been able to flip the $24,000 resistance to support on at least three different opportunities. This is precisely why the $475 million Bitcoin options expiry on Aug. 12 might be a game changer for bulls.

Considering the current regulatory pressures in play, there seems to be a good enough rationale for avoiding bullish bets, especially after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission pressed charges against a former Coinbase manager for illegal securities trading on July 21.

The additional impact from the Terra (Luna) — now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — ecosystem imploding and subsequent crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) registering for bankruptcy continue to weigh on the markets. The latest victim is crypto lending platform Hodlnaut, which suspended user withdrawals on Aug. 8.

For this reason, most traders are holding back their bets above $24,000, but events outside of the crypto market might have also negatively impacted investors’ expectations. For example, according to regulatory filings released on Aug. 9, Elon Musk sold $6.9 billion worth of Tesla stock.

Moreover, on Aug. 8, Ark Investment manager CEO Cathie Wood explained that the 1.41 million Coinbase (COIN) shares sold in July were caused by regulatory uncertainty and its potential impact on the crypto exchange’s business model.

Most bearish bets are below $23,000

Bitcoin’s failure to break below $21,000 on July 27 surprised bears because only 8% of the put (sell) options for Aug. 12 have been placed above $23,000. Thus, Bitcoin bulls are better positioned for the $475 million weekly options expiry.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Aug. 12. Source: CoinGlass

A broader view using the 1.23 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $262 million against the $212 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands above $23,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin’s price remains above $23,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 12, only $16 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to sell Bitcoin at $23,000 if it trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls could pocket a $150 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Aug. 12 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $21,000 and $22,000: 70 calls vs. 4,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $90 million.Between $22,000 and $24,000: 1,600 calls vs. 1,460 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.Between $24,000 and $25,000: 3,700 calls vs. 120 puts. The net result favors bulls by $90 million.Between $25,000 and $26,000: 5,900 calls vs. 30 puts. Bulls increase their gains to $150 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Related: Bitcoin braces for US inflation data as CPI nerves halt BTC price gains

Futures markets show bulls are less inclined to show strength

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $24,000 on Aug. 12 to balance the scales and avoid a potential $150 million loss. However, Bitcoin bulls got $265 million worth of leverage long futures positions liquidated between Aug. 8 and 9, so they are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term.

With that said, the most probable scenario for Aug. 12 is the $22,000 to $24,000 range, providing a balanced outcome between bulls and bears. Considering Bitcoin’s negative 50% performance year-to-date, even a small $90 million win for bulls could be regarded as a victory, but that would require sustaining BTC above $24,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Cointelegraph By Marcel Pechman

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The Aug. 10 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows year-over-year inflation rose 8.5% in July and while this figure is below economists’ expectations of 8.7%, it is still high. Although inflation remains much higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the marginal slowdown raises hopes that the rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have started to work. That has reduced the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in the September meeting from 68% on Aug. 9 to 37.5%, according to CME group data.

Risky assets, including the cryptocurrency markets, responded positively to the CPI print. Compared to Bitcoin (BTC), the altcoins are enjoying a stronger rally. This has pulled Bitcoin’s dominance near its yearly lows while Ether (ETH) has climbed near its yearly high.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

According to CoinShares data, Ether-related products have seen inflows of $159 million in the past seven weeks. This indicates that Ether seems to be garnering attention from institutional investors in anticipation of the Merge, which is scheduled for Sept. 19.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins sustain the higher levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.


Bitcoin turned down from $24,245 on Aug. 8 and dropped to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($22,966) on Aug. 9. The bulls aggressively purchased the dip on Aug. 10 and are attempting to push the price above the overhead resistance at $24,668.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $28,000. The bears may mount a strong resistance at this level but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could rise to $32,000. The gradually upsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside.

Conversely, if the price turns down from $24,668, the bears will again attempt to sink the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA ($21,708). A break below this level could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.


Ether turned down from $1,818 on Aug. 8 but the bears could not sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($1,637). This suggests strong demand at lower levels.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/USDT pair rebounded off the 20-day EMA on Aug. 10 and has cleared the overhead hurdle at $1,818. If buyers sustain the price above this level, the pair could rally to the psychological level of $2,000 and then to $2,200. The rising moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand.

This bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may drop toward the 50-day SMA ($1,388). That could delay the start of the next leg of the up-move.


BNB turned down from the overhead resistance zone of $338 to $350 on Aug. 8 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels on Aug. 10. This suggests that bulls are aggressively buying the dips.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will again attempt to clear the overhead zone. If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward $414. Although the rising moving averages indicate advantage to buyers, the overbought zone on the RSI indicates that a minor pullback or a consolidation is possible in the near term.

If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the first support is at $308. The bears will have to sink the price below this level to challenge the 20-day EMA ($296). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close below it could sink the pair to $275.


The bulls failed to push XRP above the overhead resistance at $0.39 on Aug. 8. This attracted sharp selling by the bears who pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.37) on Aug. 9.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive is that the bulls bought the dip and have pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA on Aug. 10. The buyers will again attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance zone between $0.39 and $0.41. If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair could rise to $0.48 and later to $0.54.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($0.35), it will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $0.30 and $0.39 for a few more days.


Cardano (ADA) turned down from the overhead resistance at $0.55 on Aug. 8 and dropped to the 20-day EMA ($0.51) on Aug. 9, indicating that bears continue to defend the overhead resistance aggressively.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ADA/USDT pair rebounded sharply off the 20-day EMA on Aug. 10, suggesting that the bulls are buying the dips with vigor. If buyers clear the overhead hurdle, the pair could start its northward march to $0.63 and then to $0.70.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price once again turns down from $0.55, the likelihood of a break below the 20-day EMA increases. If that happens, the pair could remain range-bound between $0.45 and $0.55 for a few more days.


The bulls tried to push Solana (SOL) to the overhead resistance at $48 on Aug. 8 but the bears had other plans. They stalled the recovery attempt at $44 and pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA ($40) on Aug. 9.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If the price rises from the current level and breaks above $44, the SOL/USDT pair could challenge the stiff resistance at $48.

A break above this level will complete a bullish ascending triangle pattern, opening the doors for a possible rally to $60 and then to the pattern target at $71.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the support line, the advantage could tilt in favor of the bears. The pair could then drop to $32.


The long wick on Dogecoin’s (DOGE) Aug. 9 candlestick shows that the bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance at $0.08. The sellers are attempting to build upon their advantage by pulling the price below the moving averages.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop to the trendline of the ascending triangle pattern. A break and close below this support could invalidate the bullish setup. The pair could then decline to $0.06.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to push the pair above the overhead resistance and start a new up-move. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $0.10.

Related: TORN price sinks 45% after U.S. Treasury sanctions Tornado Cash — Rebound ahead?


Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $9 on Aug. 8 but the bulls could not build upon this strength. The bears sold aggressively and pulled the price back below $9 on Aug. 9.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, a positive sign is that the DOT/USDT pair rebounded sharply off the 20-day EMA ($8.30). This indicates that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will attempt to push the price to $10.80 and later to $12.

To invalidate this view, the bears will have to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that higher levels continue to attract strong selling by the bears. That could result in a range-bound action for a few days.


The bulls have successfully sustained Polygon (MATIC) above the 20-day EMA ($0.87) but have failed to challenge the overhead resistance at $1.02. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The gradually rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory, indicate that bulls have the upper hand. If buyers push the price above $0.95, the MATIC/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $1.02. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break above it could result in a rally to $1.26 and then $1.50.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the pair may oscillate between $0.75 and $1.02 for some more time.


The long wick on Avalanche’s (AVAX) Aug. 8 candlestick shows that bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies. The price slipped back to the breakout level on Aug. 9 but the bulls successfully defended the level on Aug. 10.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers sustain the rebound, the AVAX/USDT pair could break above the overhead resistance at $31. If that happens, the pair could resume its up-move to $33 and later to the pattern target of $39.05.

The key level to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($24.88). If bears sink the price below this support, it will suggest that the breakout above $26.38 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then decline to the support line.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Cointelegraph By Rakesh Upadhyay

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